In 2024, the rapid rise of lithium iron phosphate in overseas markets has provided new growth drivers for domestic lithium battery companies, especially the demand for energy storage batteries in Europe and the United States, while lithium iron phosphate battery orders in the field of dynamic storage have increased significantly, while lithium iron phosphate material exports have increased several times year-on-year. Statistics, from January to August this year, the domestic lithium iron phosphate power battery exports 30.7GWh, in the domestic power battery exports accounted for 38%, and the proportion of ternary battery exports basically formed a "forty-six open". At the same time, according to the latest data of the General Administration of Customs, in August 2024, China's lithium iron phosphate export volume of 262 tons, an increase of 60% month-on-month, an increase of 194% year-on-year, which is the first time since 2017 that the export volume exceeded 200 tons. In terms of price, the average export price of lithium iron phosphate in August was $6,967 / ton, a decrease of 31% from the previous month and a decline of 65% year-on-year. From the export point of view, lithium iron phosphate exports have expanded to Asia, Europe, North America and South America and other regions. It is worth noting that under the pull of downstream demand, the construction of lithium iron phosphate enterprises in September was better, and the order increment of some enterprises in the second echelon was more obvious. At the same time, overseas market demand has also continued to stimulate China's lithium iron phosphate enterprises to build factories.
"Lithium iron phosphate orders get soft" in the lithium battery downcycle, compared with overseas battery factories, the advantages of domestic battery companies in lithium iron phosphate help them frequently win large lithium iron phosphate orders, becoming an important victory and defeat to disperse the haze, and taking the lead in blowing the horn for the domestic lithium battery industry to pick up. In the field of power, in July, Renault officially issued a 39GWh lithium iron phosphate battery order, which will be jointly supplied by Ningde Times and LG New Energy. Even brighter is the field of energy storage. Since the beginning of the year, statistics show that China's energy storage enterprises have won GWh orders of nearly 100GWh. Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium energy, Guoxuan High-tech, vision energy storage, Rupu Lanjun, Chuneng New energy, Penghui Energy, Haichen energy storage and other enterprises are among them. In September, the industry climate was still good, mainly benefiting from overseas energy storage. Energy storage demand in Europe and emerging markets has erupted, and large orders in Q3 have landed intensively. In June, Yiwei Energy Storage signed another contract with Powin, an American energy storage system integrator, and reached a supply cooperation of 15GWh lithium iron phosphate battery packs and higher density batteries in the battery field. In September, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that its subsidiary Yiwei Power signed an agreement with AESI to supply approximately 19.5GWh of square lithium iron phosphate batteries to the latter. It is worth mentioning that only one company, Billion Wei Lithium Energy, the total size of energy storage battery orders signed this year has exceeded 53GWh. According to foreign media reports, recently, the Spanish independent power generator Grenergy Renovables and BYD extended the strategic agreement, the capacity from the original 1.1GWh, increased to 3GWh. Benefit not only the domestic battery factory, with the three major battery companies in Korea, European and American car companies have turned to the lithium iron phosphate battery camp, the domestic upstream lithium iron phosphate material factory has become a reliable partner. At the beginning of the year, Longpan Technology, a leading lithium iron phosphate enterprise, announced that its subsidiary Changzhou Lithium Source signed a sales contract with LGES for 160,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode material products, with a contract period from 2024 to 2028. At present, overseas enterprises are in the verification and testing stage of lithium iron phosphate batteries, after overseas enterprises complete the multidimensional verification of market and technology, demand will further grow, it is expected that domestic enterprises will continue to maintain an upward trend in orders, and the export volume of lithium iron phosphate will be multiplied.
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Only the power field demand exceeds 1500GWh in overseas markets, and Europe is one of the regions with the largest demand for electrification transformation in addition to the Chinese market. Since 2024, the tide of lithium iron phosphate in Europe has begun to accelerate. In June this year, ACC decided to abandon the ternary battery route and switch to the lower-cost lithium iron phosphate battery route. In addition, Volkswagen has earlier announced that it will use lithium iron phosphate batteries as the preferred energy solution for its entry-level electric models; Mercedes-benz plans to fully introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries in its next generation of electric models; Stellantis plans to launch electric cars using lithium iron phosphate batteries in Europe; French battery startup Verkor also revealed that it would consider switching to a lower-priced lifepo4 battery solution. In mid-August, a battery factory funded and operated by start-up company Morrow Batteries was put into production in the southern Norwegian city of Arendal, with an annual output of up to 3 million units and a total designed production capacity of 1GWh, which is also Europe's first GWh grade lithium iron phosphate battery factory. From the overall capacity planning point of view, by 2030, the total demand for batteries in Europe (including power and energy storage) will reach 1.5TWh, of which about half, that is, more than 750GWh of batteries will use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Top New Energy estimate; By 2030, the global demand for power batteries will exceed 3500GWh and the demand for energy storage batteries will reach 1200GWh. Among them, lithium iron phosphate is expected to account for 45% of the power battery field, and the demand will exceed 1500GWh. Considering the current market share of 85% in energy storage, the future demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will only be greater. At the material end, it is conservatively estimated that the market demand for lithium iron phosphate materials will exceed 2 million tons in 2025. Taking into account power, energy storage and other applications such as ships and electric aircraft, the annual demand for lithium iron phosphate materials in 2030 will exceed 10 million tons. It is expected that from 2024 to 2026, the growth rate of overseas lithium iron phosphate batteries will also be higher than the growth rate of global power battery demand in the same period.
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