How to divide the cake under the two-wheeler lithium battery revolution

This year is the first year of "carbon neutrality". Under the stimulus of intensively promulgated heavy policies, comprehensive green and low-carbon policies are bound to be the macro trend of long-term development.

As a pioneer in carbon reduction, the field of travel has always been the focus of policy concerns. Continuous subsidies for car purchases, convenient licensing, and encouragement of car companies to enter the market have accelerated the formation and maturity of the new energy vehicle industry chain. As for the rise of new energy vehicles, the core contribution is the rapid industrialization of new energy vehicle power lithium batteries (lithium battery technology).

GGII data shows that China's power lithium battery shipments will reach 80GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Under the influence of the epidemic, 2020 will grow against the trend compared to 2019.

In this long-lasting large-scale lithium battery revolution, the power battery R&D and manufacturing giants in the upstream of the industry are the most important contributors, such as China’s leading lithium battery companies: CATL, BYD, TOP NEW ENERGY, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. The most loyal believers who promote the popularization of lithium batteries and lithium battery technology have made dazzling achievements on the international stage of lithium battery energy applications, which is the cornerstone of China's ranking first in the global lithium battery industry.

Both rounds and four rounds are hot

Lithium batteries can become the first choice for new energy vehicles, which is the result of the joint efforts of policies, industries, and markets. Especially at the industrial and technical level, the safety, practicability, and mass production of lithium batteries have been effectively proven. Thanks to the improvement of the objective environment, the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the travel field has also been increasing in recent years, and the growth in the four-wheel and two-wheel fields has been very rapid.

Looking at the four-wheel field first, in the early years, the policy adopted a direct and effective way of car purchase subsidies to promote electric vehicles, and the effect was very good. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in 2018 increased rapidly. Although there was a slight decline in 2019, sales still exceeded 1.2 million. In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, it actually increased by 10.9% against the trend.

Looking at the two rounds of fields again, after the official implementation of the new national standard policy in 2019, the use space of lead-acid batteries has been compressed, which is great for lighter lithium batteries. In addition, the advantages of lithium batteries, such as pollution-free, long life, small size, light weight, high voltage, and wide operating temperature range, are destined to become mainstream products that replace lead-acid batteries. In addition, the application of lithium batteries on two-wheeled vehicles has caught up with the perfect opportunity of "time, place, and harmony":

1. The promulgation of the new national standard for electric bicycles not only provides the development of lighter lithium batteries, but also allows electric bicycles that have been marginalized for more than 20 years to completely end their "black household" career, have legal rights of way, and develop more benign industry. It can be said that this is a highlight moment in the history of the development of the electric bicycle industry.

2. With the development of cities, as a supplement to automobiles and public transportation, electric two-wheeled vehicles carry the main short-distance transportation tasks and are accepted by more and more people. Statistics show that China’s daily average number of rides is nearly 1 billion.

3. The electric two-wheeler, which has been dubbed the grassroots name, has always been regarded as a means of transportation for low-income people. As the level of mass consumption increases, consumers have higher requirements for the high-end, quality, fashion, and intelligence of electric two-wheelers, and can pay higher car purchase costs for them.

4. The application of clean energy has become a global consensus, and a new round of energy revolution with the concept of "low-carbonization and non-carbonization" as the core is booming around the world. At present, "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" have become popular words for the whole people, and they are also the new goals of the country's energy-saving, emission-reduction, and low-carbon environmental development.

In general, energy strategies, national policies, and socio-economic levels, as small as changes in consumption concepts, and the upgrading of the electric two-wheeler industry, are calling for the emergence of a low-carbon, environmentally friendly, and lightweight industrializable green energy. , Lithium battery can be said to take advantage of the trend. In addition, the rise of shared electric bicycles and battery swaps has also added fire to the popularity of lithium batteries in the two-wheeled field.

It has to be said that this globalization of lithium battery has made the four and two rounds of lithium battery revolution very enthusiastic. Four-wheelers dominate the main battlefield steadily, but in terms of the speed of penetration and popularization, two-wheelers have greater opportunities and faster development.

No love for no reason

GGII data shows that the penetration rate of China's lithium battery two-wheeler market in 2020 is 23%. Although it is increasing year by year, compared with the huge market with an annual increase of 35-40 million vehicles, the future of lithium battery is still very large. .

This has also attracted the attention of many lithium battery companies in four-wheel and other fields, and they have entered the electric two-wheeler market.

To share the cake of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers, one figure must be inevitable-Top new energy.

According to public data, in the field of light-duty vehicle lithium batteries from 2018 to 2020, Top new energy has ranked first in global sales for three consecutive years, and the global market accounted for 25%, 32%, and 32.4% respectively in these three years. In the field of electric two-wheelers in China, Top new energy has a total market share of more than 60%. Especially favored by leading electric vehicle brands such as Yadi, Emma, Tailing, Luyuan, Xiaodao, No.9, and sharing giants such as Didi, Meituan, etc., it accounts for the top electric two-wheeler brands. The ratio is as high as 80%.

There will never be love for no reason, not to mention "the shopping mall is like a battlefield." The reason behind the popularity of Top new energy is the real confidence to carve up the cake of lithium battery for two-wheelers.

On the surface, this seems to be a first-hand issue: Top new energy  originated from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and was the first lithium battery company to enter the field of electric two-wheelers, and it has been rooted for more than 17 years. At that time, the domestic lithium battery for electric two-wheelers was just sprouting and there was little market demand. Top new energy moved to the international market, focusing on the lithium battery for electric bicycles, and won the second place in Europe. Top new energy took the route of fighting abroad first and then domestic, riding on the east wind of two-wheeled lithium battery. The cumulative sales of lithium batteries have exceeded 18 million sets.

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Investigating the reasons, the real demand of market segments cannot be avoided. In the 1980s and 1990s, when mobile phones first appeared, mobile phone batteries faced many charging problems, frequent safety issues, and even explosions and fires. To this day, people who buy mobile phones almost no longer pay attention to whether the battery is safe, whether it has a long standby time, or whether to prepare it. Quick charge and other issues. This is the result of the maturity of lithium battery technology and the continuous satisfaction of user needs. The market application of lithium battery technology is a process from small to large, from simple to complex, from the mature 3C electronics, power tools, smart home market, to the field of electric two-wheelers, electric vehicles, and the marketization of lithium battery technology The essence is to continuously meet the ever-increasing consumer demand.

Behind the rooting of the market is the deep understanding of application scenarios and the smashing of technology to the end. From the time when there is no demand for the electric two-wheeler market, to the rapid development of lithium battery now, I believe that Top new energy has gone through this process hard, and it is really fought a tough battle. This is the first long march to open up the battlefield. the road.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that Top new energy proposes to "return technology to users, and let the market define technology leadership", and calls on starting from the comprehensive strengths of "material research and development, battery cell design, process equipment, PACK technology" and other comprehensive strengths to deepen the industry segmentation field. It is full of confidence.

From another level, Top new energy's strategic determination is worthy of respect for every subsequent challenger. Top new energy has been in the electric two-wheeler market for many years, keeping loneliness, abandoning temptation, and focusing on doing a good job of the image of the simple brother of lithium batteries. It has also penetrated into the heart of the two-wheeler industry, and it is difficult to change in the short term.

The culprit is not just cost, safety is the first complaint

Why is the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the two-round field not high? In fact, for lithium batteries to achieve healthy and rapid development, there is still a lot of homework to do at the level of consumers and the entire industry. In particular, the economy, safety, convenience, and sense of value of lithium batteries still have large deviations in the perception of many consumers.

First of all, lifepo4 battery is actually cheaper than lead acid.

From the surface data, take the 4812 model (0.5 kWh) battery as an example, the price of lead-acid battery is 250-300 yuan; the price of lithium battery is 400-450 yuan, and the price of lithium battery is higher than that of lead-acid. However, the average service life of a set of lithium batteries reaches 3-5 years, while the average service life of lead-acid batteries is only 1-1.5 years. Therefore, from the perspective of comprehensive use cost, lithium battery is significantly better than lead acid.

Secondly, the stability and safety of lithium batteries.

The consumer market has serious misunderstandings about the safety of lithium batteries. At present, there are deficiencies in the standard management of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers. The technology of lithium batteries is high, but the manufacturing threshold is low. In order to pursue profits, the market is filled with a large number of shoddy fabrications, illegal modifications, and battery cell abuse, which bring greater safety hazards to the application of lithium batteries.

On the other hand, different lithium battery material systems have different safety differences. At present, the safety accidents of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers are basically caused by pure ternary lithium batteries. Although, from the perspective of material safety alone, lithium iron phosphate> lithium manganate> ternary lithium. However, the safety of lithium battery products is a systematic project, from the cathode material to the cell structure design to the BMS system and PACK design.

Therefore, the technical route that has passed long-term and large-scale market verification is more trustworthy in terms of security. In fact, for the past ten years or so, lithium manganese oxide has always occupied the mainstream route of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers, and will remain the number one route in the future.

To ensure the safety of lithium batteries for electric vehicles, it is not only necessary to look for professional and standardized brand companies, but also to select lithium circuit lines. On the whole, lithium manganate is the first choice, and the application of lithium iron in special scenarios needs further market verification.

Third, the service capacity of lithium batteries needs to be comprehensively improved.

Because the market is developing rapidly, compared with lead-acid, the after-sales service level of lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers is still weak. Faced with shortcomings such as a small number of outlets, non-standard services, lack of technical means, and long turnaround periods, it is easy to persuade dealers to leave dealers. And consumers.

At this point, Top new energy has taken the lead by developing the fourth generation of intelligent detectors, and has also introduced promises to consumers such as "3-minute testing, on-site compensation, and nationwide warranty", and has established more than 700 service cooperations across the country. Outlets.

In the short term, although Top new energy has established high service standards, it has only made a good start for the industry, and it is far from enough to deal with the upcoming two-wheeler lithium battery market. It is foreseeable that service will also become the core competitive indicator of various lithium battery companies.

Fourth, the perception of the value of lithium batteries is insufficient.

Compared with lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries are better in terms of energy density, weight, endurance efficiency, environmental protection, lifespan, power, charge retention, etc. However, consumers are buying two rounds due to the focus of brand marketing and poor information. It is difficult to fully recognize these facts when driving.

The lack of awareness of the value of lithium batteries not only exists in consumers, but is also a common phenomenon in terminal stores and vehicle companies with a huge base and first-line marketing. Therefore, strengthening the propaganda of the sense of value of lithium batteries is of great significance to market cultivation and correct guidance of market development, and it is also the primary task of all lithium battery brands. After all, make the cake bigger first to better divide it up.

The lithium battery revolution needs stronger synergy

Although the penetration and popularization of lithium batteries is subject to multiple factors, the general trend of lithium battery is irreversible. Lithium battery head companies, such as Top new energy lithium batteries, continue to evolve in terms of safety and practicability, and have played a better role in leading the industry. Top new energy proposes to "make lithium batteries affordable and safe for the people" is to practice the mission of promoting lithium batteries in terms of practicability and safety, and to use technology to create safer, more pragmatic and cheaper national lithium batteries. This "nationalization of lithium batteries" strategy is more conducive to the popularization and development of lithium batteries.

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At present, after more than ten years of precipitation, through technological innovation and product innovation, today's lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles have the conditions for nationalization and popularization. The safety, practicability, and cost-effectiveness of lithium battery products that the public cares about can meet the needs of users. The external market management order, business norms, lithium battery application management, safety education, value publicity, etc. are more urgent, and there is an urgent need for multiple efforts. Only by resolutely resisting illegal operations such as shoddy manufacturing, illegal modification, and abuse of battery chargers, and increasing training in the application of lithium batteries, can the sound development of lithium batteries be promoted.

The lithium battery revolution requires greater synergy, and more upstream and downstream supply chains such as vehicle companies, battery manufacturers, dealers, and consumers should also fully participate in the battle of lithium batteries.

Manufacturers who started from lead-acid batteries need to accelerate the transformation to lithium battery technology and product systems; new players who have entered the two-round lithium battery field from four rounds of transformation must have a deeper understanding of application requirements; all upstream and downstream practitioners in the industry, more We must adhere to the red line of safety, and work together to make the lithium battery two-wheeler industry bigger and stronger, so that lithium battery technology can better benefit the people.

The continuous increase in the penetration rate of lithium batteries will inevitably feed back the two-wheeler industry and consumption upgrades, which will benefit all participants in the two-wheeler industry for a long time.